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December 28, 2017
Golden Valley News
Page 3
ight
n
By Cheryl Wachenheim vant considerations: a potential gap tify replanting the field? Can I reduce
Professor between how things could and do man-hour requirements associated
NDSU Agribusiness and Applied work, and how they might be imple- w!th my herd? Today, more likdy ex-
Economics Department mented and manifest themselves, amPles are associated with cost-sav-
"It's supposed to be automatic, but The first is associated with opera- idg variable-rate application based
actually you have to press this but- tional details, and the second, with on real-time imagery, heat detection
ton," John Brunner says in his novel, achieving full value, using thermal imagery and the use of
"Stand on Zanzibar." Operationally, the concept begins imagery to better understand man-
Thinking about the speed at with the launch. Once in flight, the agement issues such as water pool-
which drone-related technology has drone collects data that are trans- ing.
developed for use in agriculture in ferred real-time to a system waiting The questions are simple to pose
recent years reminds me of this quote to turn them into useful information, but more challenging to answer.
from Brunner's 1968 novel. A year The system presents information in a When I reflect back on the enthusi-
ago, we were thinking about drone format conducive to its use in mak- asm of the sales professional, what
use to help tackle jobs that fell under ing decisions that contribute to net occurs to me is that he is one of many
one or more of the four D's: dirty, return. experts available to help you work
dangerous, difficult or dull. The pathways are well-defined, through these questions for your op-
The field has evolved quickly. I The information could come to us or eration.
couldn't write fast enough as I lis- our machinery through maps or vari- Sales professionals may argue
tened to a former student talk about able-rate or other recommendations; that tighter margins require produc-
changes in the industry. As a drone it is information that helps us make ers to find more operational efficien-
and service sales professional, his profitable decisions. Often men- cies, such as those this technology
optimism was unbridled. He spoke of tioned are in-season applications of can help provide, and that evidence
the industry having moved from in- pesticides or nitrogen, or early warn- demonstrates that the technology can
novators to early adopters, a text- ing for animal health concerns, do so accurately, quickly and at rela'-
book characterization that brought The reality can be somewhat dif- tively low cost.
forward a smile from this aging ferent. Enter the person who must Asking the sales professionals for
teacher, observe the flight and, unless you are specific evidence of this for your op-
He is not alone in his belief that in a prime location for cellular serv- eration is reasonable. Once you un-
the technology today has consider- ice, the need for manual data trans- derstand the potential, a final litmus
able, almost immediate, potential to fer after the drone lands. Camera test I suggest about whether a drone
generate information that improves resolution and data collection capac- is right for you is whether you will
our ability to make decisions. And ity are indeed amazing but take a lot use the information.
his excitement was contagious; after of bandwidth to transfer. Do you, for example, use the data
our visit, I, too, felt optimistic in rec- Any number of additional things from your yield monitor to make re-
ommending serious consideration by can go wrong or work differently curring decisions regarding input
farmers and ranchers, than expected and unless you have use?
In the name of due diligence, be- an on-call technician or nearby serv- One year ago, my advice on
fore putting words to paper, I spent ice center, the time required to serv- adopting drones to facilitate deci-
the next day asking others for their ice the drone or its components, or sion-making in production agricul-
thoughts. I spoke with an Extension sort out the data transfer, mayexceed lure bordered on "it depends."
agent and two colleagues who have the usefulness of the information. Consideration of the adoption deci-
spent some time considering the evo- Reliability is important, sion has evolved with the technol-
lution of this innovation and its place This statement is amplified be- ogy, but the advice remains the same
in the tool kits of our operators and cause of an alternative data-gather- and is particularly tempered for op-
their supporting industries, ing technology that is growing in erators, compared with their crop
And I talked at length with three timeliness and reliability: satellites, consultant counterparts.
North Dakota farmers who adopted As the number of satellites gracing Work through the value-contribu-
the technology early and have waded our skies increases, some services lion economics for your operation,
through data collection, connectivity, are advertising even daily images, re- and visit with farm or service opera-
interpretation and use. These conver- ducing the all-important risk associ- tors who already have employed
sations and additional research have ated with less-than-perfect drone technology. You may discover
tempered my optimism, conditions for visual images,some unexpected considerations,
The process of making the adop- Putting aside operational consider- such as an inability to recognize the
lion decision continues to consider ati0ris, let's consider the value side of overhead power lines that may cross
the same factors as those of other the equation: Will the information your fields, redundancies with data
farm or ranch input decision generate e ough value to jgstffy its collection methods you use, or fac-
added ~yeat js that,fli~e se'lf:~g i cost, inciuding th~tt of your time? Will tors l!miting the degree to Which you
]t be used to iacfl]tate management c~'~ilt flae information to use, su~:h
ab Ciratd ''appiication techno~y,iI decisions lthat improve the efficiency as your existing equipment set.
when drones are applied to their po- and profitability of your operation? A final note of caution: Be aware
tential, they remove human subjec- Answering these questions re- that imagery and other data captured
tivity. The technology exists to quires you to ask yourself what in- by drones
gather data, and in theory, with some formation y.ou will use and in what is limited to understanding "what
operational reality-check stipula- form, to make what decisions. In is." While comparison through time
lions, analysis can provide informa- other words, what will you do with and between fields can provide con-
lion that can be applied to our the information the technologysiderableinsight, it will complement,
operationsthrough automated promises and how will it improve not replace, the "ground truth." Your
processes, your ability to make decisions? What personal experience with your farm
So what stops me from outrightare these decisions, and how much and what it produces, be it plant- or
recommending farmers and ranchers better are they made with this infor- animal-based, and seeing the fields
adopt the technology and move into mation? and livestock yourself, continue to
the conversation of choosing the For example, you once may havego a long way toward understanding
right drone package? I see two rele- asked: Does the emergence rate jus- the "why."
Will the hay inventory
Please
support your
local merchants!
the cows?
Cow herd inventory is the work- selling older cows removes more after the first of the year for 120 days,
ing asset for beef producers, and weight than selling the younger the center needs 555,948 pounds of
ma!ntaining that inventory is an im- cows. So looking at the older cows forage, or 278 tons; that's 428 of the
portant component of a successful the center did sell, the 117 older cows 1,300-pound round bales. The center
beef operation, totaled 173,430 pounds of beef. The needs 1,010 bales to overwinter the
A walk through the Dickinson Re- average weight for the older cows cows and calves: 428 for the cows
search Extension Center calf pens was more, thus selling older cows re- and 582 for the calves.
checks the health and vigor of the moved more total weight, whichYes, some give and take has been
calves. The challenge is keeping feed translates into feed savings, built into the percent of body weight
resources current to provide the daily Of the 117 cows sold, 75 were tra- consumed, as I figured high, but hay
feed needs for the center, ditional-bred (standard size) cows waste also occurs, and one does not
At the center, 229 calves are an- that averaged 1,580 pounds, whfle want to come up short prior to calv-
ticipated to consume 378 tons of for- the 42 Aberdeen-influenced cows ing.
age before spring grass. At 1,300 (bred for reduced mature size) aver- The calf bale consumption is off-
pounds per bale, 582 bales of forage aged 1,308 pounds. Another curios- set by 126 bales based on their daily
will be fed before turnout May 1. So ity point: I found the 272-pound body supplement. The cows' bale con:
II pondered: How much hay should weight difference interesting because sumption is offset by the cake sup-
the calves get before the call is made the difference between the standard plement by 27 bales. Either way, no
to sell some calves to spare forage for size and Aberdeen-influenced cows carryover of hay will happen. More
the cow herd? is almost an additional large round than likely, some hay will need to be
' The calves also receive 4 pounds bale per cow for a typical winter, purchased,
daily of a commercial supplement to Anyway, those cows are sold and Every day the cows stay on crop
balance the forage-based ration and off the inventory. A side note: The aftermath, the center benefits. Keep
make for better utilization of the for- standard cow herd weaned an aver- in mind, nice weather always is ap-
~ge.And that saves 82 tons of hay (or age of 470 pounds of May/June-born preciated but can create illusions that
t26 bales) for the cowherd, calves; the Aberdeen-influenced cow things are fine.
'~ What about the cows? The center herd weaned an average of 432 Usingcrop aftermath and late-sea-
~ummered 262 cows with an average pounds of May/June calves. I scratch son dry forage can cut production
fall weight of 1,369 pounds, or a total my head as producers will ponder the costs; however, that can have conse-
dow weight of 358,746 pounds. The size of their cows and come up with quences. Cows need to receive a bal-
dverage condition score was 6.3. a number. Another side note: Pro- anced ration to halt poor performance
', The drought cut into feed sup- ducers need to keep cow size within or even the loss of condition.
l~lies, so the center sold 117 older the goals of the operation and actu- A final reminder: The cows will
dows totaling 173,430 pounds of ally weigh cows to aid in manage- enjoy the nice winter grazing; how-
Beef, at an average weight of 1,482 ment decisions, ever, if the many extenuating cir-
pounds. That meant 145 younger Back to the cows. The current cumstances affecting the cows'
cows were kept that averaged 1,278 center cow inventory is 83 standard nutrition are not accounted for, the
pounds, ora total weight of 185,316 beef cows (average weight 1,344 cows will not enjoy calving. Cows
pounds, pounds) and 62 Aberdeen-influenced must maintain condition prior to
Just for curiosity, the 3-year-old cows (average weight 1,190 pounds), calving, and those that lack condition
cows averaged 1,341 pounds, while The anticipated forage need is 2 to need to add it and grow the develop-
the 2-year-old cows average 1,202 2.5 percent of 185,316 pounds of ing calf.
pounds. That extra year of life for the body weight per day, or about 4,633 So do not skimp, skimp and skimp
3-year-old cow added 139 pounds to pounds of forage daily, in hopes of saving a few dollars.
her body weight, or in terms of feed, With the nice weather the area has Rather, provide the proper supple-
almost half of a big round hay bale received, the cows are grazing crop mentation to meet the current needs
per cow for a typical winter, aftermath, with 4 pounds of 22 per- of the cow herd or reduce inventory.
I never have looked at drought re- cent protein supplement cake fed May you find all your ear tags.
ductions that way, but obviously, every other day. If we start feeding
~ r
eaglccartoons.com CQ ROLL CA!.I.
Global wheat production increases by 3.5 million tons
On Tuesday, Dec. 12, USDA re-
leased its monthly WASDE report.
The report in the 12th month of the
year tends to be a bit of a time-
waster. Honestly, this one wasn't that
much different.
Case in point: it was the 45th
straight December WASDE report
that U .S. corn yields went un-
changed. U .S. corn-for-ethanol
raised by 50 million bushels whereas
U.S. corn exports were left un-
changed at 1.925 billion bushels.
This explains the 50 million bushel
decline in U.S. corn ending stocks,
dropping from 2.487 billion bushels
a month ago to 2.437 billion bushels
in this month's estimates. The aver-
age pre-report trade guesstimate was
at 2.478 billion.
Ultimately, we'll take the 50 mil-
lion bushel increase in U.S. corn de-
mand. There's will still be nearly 2.5
billion bushels left in the pipeline by
the end of 2017-18 though. It was a
similar sentiment in South America
as Brazilian corn production stayed
at'95 million tonnes. In Argentina,
the number kept at 42 million tons:
Globally, corn ending stocks were
raised to just over 204 million tons.
The market was expecting to see
slightly stronger soybeans production
in Brazil but slightly lower soybean
numbers coming out of Argentina.
However, the USDA kept Brazilian
and Argentine soybean production
numbers for the 2017-18 crop at 108
Put Your ,Money
Where Your t ouse sl
k~cal independent A~ st englhe i o~l
businesses ate ~ co~m~t~ity
your best va~e aod o~r economy
and 57 million tons respectively.
Comparably, CONAB raised its esti-
mate of the Brazilian crop to 109.5
million tons. It's likely that it's just
too early for the USDA to account for
some tougher weather conditions in
South America.
Globally, the USDA raised soy-
bean ending stocks to a new record
of 98.32 million tons. That's up from
the 97.9 million-ton forecast a month
ago and the below the average pre-
report guesstimate of 97.82 million
tons.
The USDA says that global wheat
production was increased by about
3.5 million tons, mainly attributed to
the bigger spring wheat and durum
wheat crop in Canada that was an-
nounced by Statistics Canada last
week. Canada also saw wheat ex:-'
ports raised by 1 mill~0n tons, but the
carryout in the Great White North
should still be 6.64 million tons by
the end of 2017-18, according to the
USDA. European production was
also raised by 1 million tons to sit at
152.5 million tons now. Both Russia
and Ukraine saw wheat exports
raised by 500,000 tonnes but Aus-
tralian and Argent'inian balance
sheets were left unchanged.
This means that total global wheat
production was raised from the being.
the second-largest crop in history to
the largest wheat crop in history at
755.2 million tons. The previous
record was set last year with nearly
754 million tons harvested. What this
all adds up to another new record car-
ryout of 268.4 million tons. The last
record was set last year at 255.3 mil-
lion
tons.
Overall, we continue to look for
South American weather premium or
fresh demand headlines to get us out
of this bearish trading range we've
been stuck in for the past few
months.
(Brennan Turner hails from Foam
Lake, Saskatcehwan, Canada, where
his family started farming the land in
the. early ~ 1900s.: Af(er~ ;graduating
with an, economics: degree from Yale
University Brennan / ~l~l;~yedil~ofes-
sional hockey and Worked as a c om-
modity a nalyst on Wall Street before
starting FarmLead.com. )
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